NEW POLLING: Internal Priorities’ Polling Shows Further Gains for Kamala Harris
To: Interested Parties
Re: New Polling Shows Further Gains for Kamala Harris
Date: August 9, 2024
Summary
New polling by Priorities USA shows Vice President Harris’ campaign continues to gather impressive momentum. Data collected immediately after President Biden exited the race already demonstrated the Vice President’s strength as the Democratic nominee. Our initial findings indicate that Team Trump’s attempts to define her have failed, while Team Harris has successfully rolled out her record, qualities, and vision. This new research identifies new growth in support among critical constituencies and significantly improves Democrats’ path to victory, outlined below in the Priorities’ electoral snake chart.
A bigger battlefield with multiple paths to 270
Our Presidential forecasts have improved by nearly 2pp across the battleground since our initial forecast in late July, after President Biden stepped back from the race. The path to 270 electoral votes goes through the same core states: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, in recent weeks we have seen substantial improvements in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. This has expanded the battleground in favor of Democrats and gives Harris more options for winning the votes she needs to hold onto the White House in 2024.
Vice President Harris is now leading Donald Trump
For the first time this cycle, Donald Trump is trailing in key battleground states. Across the five states most likely to determine the election – AZ, MI, NV, PA, WI – Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 47-44. In immediate post-announcement polling, she trailed by one percentage point (43-44) and in immediate pre-announcement polling, Biden trailed by three (42-45).
Greater support from across the political spectrum is driving this overall increase. Vice President Harris is making important gains among core members of our winning 2020 coalition. Previous data from Priorities showed improvement among Black and Latino voters. Our new polling shows an 8pp increase in support relative to Biden among Gen Z and Millennial voters. Third-party support has also decreased, especially among young women. Fewer voters say they will not vote or are completely undecided, with young Black voters especially moving to Harris. And, importantly, she is eating into Trump’s support, particularly among young men.
Despite millions spent on ads by Team Trump, we have not observed losses in support for VP Harris among any key constituency. On key issues, Vice President Harris continues to be positioned strongly. Where Democrats broadly can be viewed as weaker on certain issues – like inflation – Harris carries less baggage, and trust in her hasn’t changed despite the efforts by Team Trump. Meanwhile, Team Harris’ earned and paid media efforts on issues like abortion (see Priorities ad: Denied) have paid off. President Biden had a +11 point advantage over Trump on trust handling abortion, and the immediate post-announcement polling showed the same for Vice President Harris. Now, her trust has skyrocketed to a +19 point advantage over Trump on abortion.
Vice President Harris is the most popular figure on either ticket
As voters in battleground states get to know Kamala Harris, her favorability grows. Half as many voters don’t know how they feel or are neutral toward her as there were two weeks ago, and her favorability rating has increased from 42% to 46%. Meanwhile, as Team Trump introduces J.D. Vance, his numbers continue to tumble. Vance’s name recognition has increased from 65% to 75%, while his net-favorability has decreased from -7 to -10. It’s imperative that Team Harris replicates their online strategies to define Kamala Harris and JD Vance to introduce Tim Walz. Right now, most voters don’t know much about him – only 30% have an opinion – and those that do view him neutrally. Content creators are bringing the same enthusiasm for Walz as they did for Harris two weeks ago, with influencers flooding Priorities’ DMs looking for guidance on how to engage.
Vice President Harris is strong on character attributes where President Biden was also strong, and is better positioned where Trump had advantages over Biden. Among independents, her strongest attribute is ‘being honest, not corrupt’, where she has a 12 point advantage over Trump. She also leads over Trump on mental fitness (+9), caring about people like you (+8), and bringing the country together (+8). Republican efforts to portray her as unhinged, out of touch and radical are clearly dismissed by swing voters. And, where Trump was strongest – like on being a strong leader – Vice President Harris is gaining ground – narrowing the deficit by nine points from Biden.
It’s clear from the second round of polling conducted by Priorities that Vice President Harris continues to gain strength in the face of negative attack ads attempting to define her candidacy. However, it’s critical to engage young voters continuously so they can create informed opinions about the new Democratic ticket. It’s also critical to keep the issues that matter to them front and center, with an eye to the future, to maintain this enthusiasm and ensure record levels of youth participation in November.
Priorities polled 9,260 registered voters nationally, including 2,711 registered voters in AZ, MI, NV, PA and WI, via web and text-to-web surveys. The poll was conducted between August 1st and August 6th and was weighted to a likely voter universe by race, age, gender, education, and 2020 vote recall.