MEMORANDUM
TO: Patriot Majority USA and Priorities USA
FROM: Geoff Garin
DATE: May 16, 2017
RE: The Impact of the AHCA Vote on Republican House Members
Summary
Between May 8 and 10, 2017, Garin-Hart-Yang Research surveyed a representative cross section of 750 voters across 15 districts of Republican House members who supported the passage of the American Health Care Act. Eight of the districts were won by Donald Trump last November, and seven were carried by Hillary Clinton.
The findings of this research are clear and stark:
- The AHCA is disliked by voters, and opposition to the legislation is extremely strong among voters who know the most about it.
- Constituents who already are aware that their representatives voted for the AHCA hold those representatives in low regard and are much less likely to support them for reelection.
- The political toll on Republicans who voted for the bill is very likely to grow even larger as more constituents become aware of how their representatives voted.
The bottom line: if you are a Republican, the key takeaway from this research is that you want voters to know as little as possible about the AHCA and to forget about it as soon as possible. But for Democrats and other progressives, the survey highlights the importance of educating voters and making sure they always remember that their GOP representatives supported passing this bill.
Discussion of Key Findings
Among all voters in the 15 districts, 38% express a favorable opinion of the Republican health care bill, while 53% express an unfavorable opinion. There is virtually no intensity among those who are favorable to the bill, with a mere 8% saying they are very favorable. More than two-thirds of those who are negative to the bill feel strongly about it, with 37% saying they are very unfavorable.
Forty-five percent of voters across the 15 districts say they have heard a lot about the GOP bill, and there is a powerful relationship between knowing a lot about the AHCA and having an intensely negative opinion of it. Among the 45% who say they know a lot, only 34% are favorable to the bill (11% very favorable, 23% somewhat favorable), while 65% are unfavorable to the bill—including a majority of 53% who are very unfavorable. Independent voters who have heard a lot about the AHCA are unfavorable to it by a whopping margin of 70% to 27%. Independents who have heard less about the bill so far are unfavorable to it by 49% to 32%.
We find a similar relationship with other key segments of the electorate, including seniors and non-college educated white women, both of whom are key swing voting blocs for the 2018 mid-term elections: |