Summary
Election Day 2019 saw Republican defeats in suburban districts across the country, highlighting a growing problem for Republicans and one that promises to hinder Donald Trump’s re-election chances in 2020. New polling from Priorities USA in the battleground states of Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania shows that Trump has been losing ground with suburban voters as he focuses on a strategy of exclusively turning out his base. His continued emphasis on issues like immigration that are meant to fire up his base are having a backlash effect with these voters that represent a significant portion of the electorate. Every day that Trump spends focused on this strategy digs a deeper hole for him and the Republican Party with America’s suburban voters.
In two very worrisome developments for Trump and his enablers in Congress, pluralities of voters in the states most likely to decide the 2020 election support impeaching and removing Donald Trump from office, and cite Trump’s handling of the economy as a reason to vote for somebody else.
Democrats should continue to hold Trump accountable for his corrupt and illegal actions while aggressively communicating with suburban and other persuadable voters about the problems with Trump’s economic policies and how they are affecting American families.
Suburban Backlash Against Trump
“I think my base is so strong, I’m not sure that I have to do that.” – Donald Trump on reaching out to swing voters.
“People all think you have to change people’s minds. You have to get people to show up that believe in you.” – Trump Campaign Manager Brad Parscale [Time, 6/20/19]
Roughly half of respondents across Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they live in the suburbs. Among this group, Trump’s favorability (40% favorable/ 56% unfavorable) and job approval (43% approve/ 57% disapprove) paint a bleak picture for the president. When just looking at suburban women, the problem becomes even worse. Trump’s favorability stands at 34% favorable, 61% unfavorable and his job approval is 38% approve, 62% disapprove.
Republicans’ problems with suburban voters were on full display in the 2018 and 2019 elections, but rather than attempt to recover with these voters, Trump is dedicating himself to a strategy of appeasing his base in an effort to find new voters who look like his existing supporters. This strategy is exacerbating the problem for Trump, as the issues that motivate his base are backlashing with suburban voters.
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