Case Study: Non-College White Women
A key component of Trump’s victory in 2016 was winning white women. That was largely driven by his margins among non-college white women. Our polling shows that Trump is in significant jeopardy of losing his advantage with this group. We believe Trump won non-college white women across these five states by about 61% to 39% in 2016. However, Trump is underwater with this group on his favorability, with 48% feeling unfavorably to him (39% very unfavorable), and 44% viewing him favorably. Non-college white women represent a key persuasion group for both Trump and Democrats and are a group that Trump must win by a decent margin in order to be re-elected.
This group is particularly downbeat about the direction of the country under Trump, as well as their own personal finances. 50% of white women without a college degree believe that things in the country have changed for the worse, compared to 40% for their male counterparts. 61% say that their income is falling behind the cost of living, with just 4% saying they are making enough to get ahead. More than half say that the cost of health care, cost of education, and wages and incomes keeping up with the cost of living have gotten worse, not better, and 48% say that the economic situation for the middle class and average working families has gotten worse.
As they think about the issues they care about when voting, 53% say health care is one of their most important issues, followed by wages not keeping up with the cost of living (37%) and gun violence (33%). And, when these women think about these issues in relation to the 2020 race, they are more likely to view them as a vulnerability for Trump. Nearly half (46%) of non-college white women say that Trump’s handling of health care is a reason to elect someone else, with another 35% saying it’s a reason to re-elect Trump. That finding is consistent with both wages (43% say it’s a reason to elect someone else versus 37% saying it’s a reason to re-elect Trump) and gun violence (43% elect someone else/ 34% re-elect Trump).
About This Poll
Garin-Hart-Yang and Global Strategy Group conducted this poll online August 13-25, 2019, with a total sample of 3,014 voters, with representative subsamples of 805 voters in Florida, 606 voters in Pennsylvania, 603 voters in Michigan, 500 voters in Wisconsin, and 500 voters in Nevada. The states were weighted together based on the number of electoral votes each one represents. The distribution of voters across demographic, geographic, and political factors reflect the expected composition of the 2020 electorate in each state.
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